Critical Thinking
From HowTo.Lifehack
How well can you think? The ability to think critically might not be as prized in our society as good looks, tremendous wealth or a quick tongue, but it is probably the most useful skill a person can develop.
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[edit] Benefits of Critical Thinking
Among the benefits of careful thinking:
- Improved planning. Critical thinkers are more aware of uncertainty that hinges beneath plans. Thinking is the key component of strategy and tactics. If you can’t beat an opponent with luck, looks or lies, you need to be able to out think them. This applies particularly when your opponent isn’t another individual but the world.
- Less gullibility. You are less likely to fall for obvious deceptions and problems when you can think critically. This doesn’t need to twist you into a trust-deficient cynic, but it can help you remain cautious when others are greedy and smart when others are fearful.
- Creativity. Some would argue that creativity comes from intuition and randomness, not controlled thinking. But I would argue that critical thinkers can utilize their skills to see outside the imaginary lines they draw around a problem.
- Intellectual Freedom. One could argue that people use the word 'freedom' too liberally in American culture. But intellectual freedom is perhaps the greatest benefit of critical thinking. Instead of simply conforming to the status quo, you can actively question assumptions. Questioning assumptions (even your own) can lead to finding new solutions for a greater quality of life.
[edit] What is Critical Thinking
Many people have different definitions of what critical thinking is. Some equate it with skepticism and doubt. Others mix it with favoring empiricism over theories. I’d like to go with a more practical definition.
Critical thinking is...
- Using logic, reason and the scientific method over abstract theories and emotional judgements.
- Awareness of heuristics (shortcuts) and biases (errors) that influence human thinking.
- Using these abilities systematically on everything in your life. From that, using the results to make improvements.
The third point there is perhaps the most important. Actually using the skills of critical thinking allows you to question your habits, goals, beliefs, relationships and methods. From that questioning you can make calculated improvements.
[edit] Errors in Thought
The start of any discussion into human reason, needs to look at the subject of biases. Biases are flaws in our reasoning system that cause us to make errors. Some of these biases are peculiar to the human brain. Others are contained in the nature of information themselves.
Awareness of these biases isn’t always enough to stop them, but does allow us to be careful in the results we draw.
[edit] Confirmation Bias
One of the worst, and most common biases, to attack critical thinking is the confirmation bias. This is the tendency for humans, once an idea is formed, to look for supporting instead of conflicting evidence.
This bias was demonstrated in a study where participants were given the numbers 2, 4 and 6. They were asked by the researcher to determine the pattern involved. In order to help them (2, 4, 6 can correspond with a number of patterns) they were allowed to ask the researcher if a new triplet of numbers fit the pattern.
Most people assumed the rule was “goes up by 2's” or “x1, x2, x3.” As a result, the confirmation bias caused them to ask triplets that matched those rules to confirm their bias.
In reality, the rule was “increasing numbers.” Rationally, the best way to determine the pattern is to ask for triplets that don’t fit your rule. Asking “1, 20, 45,“ and receiving a positive statement would have quickly dispelled previous theories.
The first goal of a rational thinker is that, once a theory is formed, evidence that conflicts with this theory is sought. Searching to be proven wrong, rather than vindicated, is a cornerstone of critical thinking.
[edit] Recency Bias
Another bias that can damage thinking is exaggerating the effect of recent effects on the whole. This can come from stock pickers checking the value of their holdings every few minutes. Webmasters watching AdSense revenue click up and down each hour. It can also come from assuming that one stroke of luck is indicative of the next.
Recency bias can result from an overabundance of information, disabling rational thought. The solution is to remove noise that isn’t helping you. Information that can’t be acted upon, is emotionally charged and distracts should be avoided.
[edit] Dark Side of Knowledge
Another bias is the hidden side of knowledge. That we tend to focus on what we know, as opposed to what we don’t. This is a point brought up by Nassim Nicholas Talib in his book, The Black Swan.
As information processors, we necessarily focus on information we have, believing it to be evidence despite the information we lack. Here are some examples of errors due to hidden knowledge:
- An employer boasts about his ability to select suitable candidates for employment. The problem is that he does not include the potential applicants that would have done well, but he rejected.
- A pigeon relieves itself on the nice blue suit of a Wall Street broker. The broker curses that pigeons seem to aim at him instead of on the street. Here the hidden knowledge is the amount of times he could have been hit, but wasn’t.
- A person visits a therapist and starts to feel less depressed. Here the missing evidence is whether that person would have recovered spontaneously without the doctors help (there is evidence to show depression goes up and down in cycles).
[edit] Narrative Bias
People have a tendency to prefer anecdotal over statistical evidence. We like stories. A single, personal and emotional story about the benefits of a particular method will sway people far more easily than a graph or set of data points.
This preference for subjective accounts rather than the cold, hard facts can lead to errors in thinking. Your Aunt Matilda informing you about the need for chicken soup or echinacea to cure a cold sits more firmly in your mind than a double-blind scientific study which says it won’t work.
[edit] Intellectual Stopsigns
Another mental error is the inability to see so-called intellectual stopsigns. Intellectual stopsigns, coined by writers for Overcoming Bias, are examples where we believe we have found an explanation but we have really found nothing. Here are some examples:
- Consciousness is an “emergent” phenomenon of neurons.
- Fire comes from “phlogisten” contained in the wood.
- “God” created the universe.
All of these are examples of intellectual stopsigns, even if they at first don’t appear so. Why? Simply because they can be used to explain anything. When a theory can explain anything, it actually explains nothing.
If you replaced the first statement with: “Consciousness is a ‘magical’ phenomenon of neurons,” you would not be able to make new predictions or explanations than if you had used the word ‘emergent.’ In these cases, it is probably best to stick with “I don’t know yet,” as that is at least more forthcoming.
[edit] Reification
A common mental error is to confuse a mental model with the thing it describes. Reification is to act as if a purely mental construct exists in reality. Mental errors occur when you attempt to act on this mental construct which doesn’t actually exist.
The greatest example would be intelligence scores. IQ is the score you get on either a Standford-Binet, WAIS or similar test. It is not a property of you, or your brain. Reification leads people to ask, “What is your IQ?” Confusing it with, “What was the score you got on an IQ test.”
A similar problem with reification is to equate a simplified model of reality with the reality itself. Models are reductions of information, while they are useful, they are inherently less complex and allow for less randomness than the events they describe. Problems from equating models with reality are present particularly in complex fields where models are often grossly simplified.
Examples of this would include:
- Nutrition - The body consists of trillions of cells and many more chemical reactions. Medical research has come a long way in explaining how functions of the body work, but it has a long way still to go. Confusing nutritional information on the back of a box with actual nutrition or assuming all you need is a little more Omega-3's or anti-oxidants are errors resulting from these gross simplifications.
- Business - Simplifying business matters into simple categories of marketing, ROI and break-even points might be helpful. But as anyone running a business can tell you, there are far more variables than can be controlled by a formula. Models help, but they aren’t the same thing as what they describe.
[edit] Tips for Mastering Critical Thought
Here are some ideas to help your critical thinking skills:
[edit] Be Skeptical
Doubt things. Don’t accept things at face value and think them through. The worst error you can commit is to delegate all your thinking to another person. By creating a layer of doubt on everything, even your ideas, you can improve them.
Skepticism isn’t cynicism, which rejects everything. It just means you need to place a layer of rational thought before accepting anything as truth.
[edit] Be Empirical
Many failures of thinking have to do with the beautiful theories and complex models we form inside our heads. These models can serve us well, but they can also trap us. Blinding you to potential opportunities and disguising threats.
Being empirical simply means that you experiment where you don’t know. Look towards data, not hypothesis, and follow what the numbers are telling you. No solution can be permanent, but resist the urge to force a complex reality into a simplified box.
[edit] Emphasize the Important
If I inform you that elephants are purple or that you can cut your e-mail time in half without problems, which would be better for you to think about? Rational thinking is an energy consuming ability. As such, you need to force it upon the things that matter most in your lives.
Sadly, many people who have mastered rational abilities of skepticism and empiricism avoid using them where they matter most. Within their narrowed field of study, they are ruthless thinkers, bringing out the truth. But then they go home and apply weak thinking skills to matters critical to their lives.
Here are some thoughts for where you might want to use your newfound critical thinking skills:
- Habits. Where do you spend most your time and energy? If you are wrong about your habits, the result can be huge over a period of years.
- Beliefs. How do your religious and spiritual beliefs influence your thinking? Using rational thinking skills can help you fine-tune this ever-present aspect of your life.
- Goals. What do you want to accomplish? Are you going about it the right way?
- Opportunities. Have you summarily rejected opportunities because they don’t fit your worldview? Use some critical thinking skills to open up new possibilities.
